Market Update September 14

By Twickenham Advisors on September 29, 2026

Sources: Twickenham Advisors, Morningstar Direct, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Department of Treasury, and Ycharts as of September 14, 2026

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, indicating that headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month, and 3.4% over the prior year. Core CPI (which excludes the more volatile food and energy components) rose 0.3% in August, and +2.4% on an annual basis. Diesel prices are now averaging over $6.00 a gallon for the first time ever. Airline tickets, used car prices and wireless phone service prices all rose in August. With oil trading in excess of $100/barrel, market participants have deduced that it is very likely that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this week during its scheduled meeting. With the mid-term elections looming and only two more FOMC meetings scheduled in October and December, market participants generally agree that the Federal Reserve will likely make an interest rate hike to cool the persistent inflation that has become the norm in recent years. In anticipation of higher inflation and interest rates, U.S. Treasury bond yields rose last week. Before the Labor Day weekend, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury was yielding 4.78%. By Friday’s close it had reached 4.96%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) took action and raised its benchmark rate last week, indicating that inflation is likely to persist above previously expected levels in Europe. Additionally, the ECB increased their growth forecast, stating that the European economy has proven resilient, despite geopolitical concerns emanating from the Middle East conflict. Similarly, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast is currently estimating U.S. GDP for the third quarter to rise 4.4%, which represents robust growth by almost any standard.

Most stock and bond indices declined last week, as a result of the inflation headlines. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, with mid-cap and large-cap stocks declining around 2.0%. International stocks also declined close to 1.5%. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index fell 1% last week in anticipation of higher interest rates. Commodities were one of the few positive segments, driven primarily by energy price increases. The Bloomberg Commodity index rose over 1.7% last week.

As we always remind our clients, a well-diversified portfolio is the key to compounding wealth over the long-term: stay invested and stay diversified!